Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LEHAR-13 in India from 24 Nov 2013 12:00 UTC to 27 Nov 2013 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LEHAR-13

in India

Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LEHAR-13 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (28 Nov 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	101 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

101 km/h Current Max.

Up to 47.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	23 Nov 2013 06:00	185	No people	7.4 million	India
2	23 Nov 2013 12:00	185	No people	6.5 million	India
3	23 Nov 2013 18:00	185	No people	9 million	India
4	24 Nov 2013 00:00	185	No people	8.2 million	India
5	24 Nov 2013 06:00	185	No people	5.4 million	India
6	24 Nov 2013 12:00	175	No people	4.6 million	India
7	24 Nov 2013 18:00	185	No people	7.4 million	India
8	25 Nov 2013 00:00	185	No people	6.6 million	India
9	25 Nov 2013 06:00	185	No people	10.2 million	India
10	25 Nov 2013 12:00	185	No people	17.8 million	India
11	25 Nov 2013 18:00	175	No people	6.8 million	India
12	26 Nov 2013 00:00	175	No people	5.7 million	India
13	26 Nov 2013 06:00	167	No people	18.1 million	India
14	26 Nov 2013 12:00	167	No people	3.9 million	India
15	26 Nov 2013 18:00	138	No people	4.2 million	India
16	27 Nov 2013 00:00	138	No people	3.5 million	India
17	27 Nov 2013 06:00	121	No people	No people	India
18	27 Nov 2013 12:00	101	No people	No people	India

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	11/23/2013 6:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	8.1, 97.1
2	11/23/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	8.7, 96.6
3	11/23/2013 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	9.5, 95.5
4	11/24/2013	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	9.8, 95.2
5	11/24/2013 6:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	84	no people	200000 people	10.3, 94.3	India
6	11/24/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	300000 people	10.9, 93.3	India
7	11/24/2013 6:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	300000 people	11.7, 92.9	India
8	11/25/2013	Tropical storm	111	no people	270000 people	12.1, 91.9	India
9	11/25/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	no people	no people	12.3, 91.3
10	11/25/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 1	121	no people	no people	12.6, 90.6
11	11/25/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.2, 91.1
12	11/26/2013	Category 1	138	no people	no people	12.3, 90.8
13	11/26/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 1	138	no people	no people	12.7, 89.5
14	11/26/2013 12:00:00 PM	Category 1	138	no people	no people	12.9, 88.6
15	11/26/2013 6:00:00 PM	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13.2, 88.1
16	11/27/2013	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13.6, 87.2
17	11/27/2013 6:00:00 AM	Category 1	121	no people	no people	14.1, 86.1
18	11/27/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	101	no people	12.8 million people	14.8, 84.7	India
18	11/28/2013	Tropical storm	84	no people	29.7 million people	15.8, 82.5	India
18	11/28/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	42.6 million people	17, 80.5	India
18	11/29/2013	Tropical depression	47	no people	no people	18.3, 79	India

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
India	Andhra Pradesh
India	Madhya Pradesh
India	Orissa
India	Pondicherry
India	Maharashtra
India	Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Hyderabad	Andhra Pradesh	India	Major city	3.6 million people
Port Blair	Andaman and Nicobar Islands	India	City	110000 people
Nirmal	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	80000 people
Nizamabad	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	290000 people
Karimnagar	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	210000 people
Siddipet	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	64000 people
Suriapet	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	95000 people
Yellandu	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	43000 people
Khammam	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	170000 people
Pithapuram	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	50000 people
Tiruvuru	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Peddepuram	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Samalkot	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	54000 people
Kakinada	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	290000 people
Nidadavole	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	44000 people
Tadepallegudem	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	100000 people
Nuzvid	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	50000 people
Eluru	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	190000 people
Bhimavaram	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	140000 people
Vijayawada	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	770000 people
Narasapur	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	59000 people
Gudivada	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	7300 people
Guntur	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	520000 people
Tenali	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	150000 people
Narasaropet	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Machilipatnam	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	190000 people
Bapatla	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	68000 people
Nizampatam	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Chirala	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	86000 people
Ongole	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	170000 people
Kottapatnam	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Kukatpalle	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	340000 people
Warangal	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	550000 people
Rajahmundry	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	-
Serilungampalle	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	190000 people
Qutubullapur	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	280000 people
Lalbahadur Nagar	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	310000 people
Kapra	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	200000 people
Uppal Kalan	Andhra Pradesh	India	City	140000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Nizampatam, India. This height is estimated for 28 Nov 2013 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 27 Nov 2013 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Nov 2013 15:00	Nizampatam	India	0.3
	24 Nov 2013 20:00	Hastmatabad	India	0.3
	24 Nov 2013 20:00	Mahglutan	India	0.3
	28 Nov 2013 16:00	Kottapalem	India	0.2
	28 Nov 2013 16:00	Lankavanidibba	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Hobdaypur	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Port Blair	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Bamboo Flat	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Jangli Ghat	India	0.2
	28 Nov 2013 11:00	Peddapatnam	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Rangachang	India	0.2
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Garacherama	India	0.2
	28 Nov 2013 12:00	Gollapalem	India	0.1
	28 Nov 2013 13:00	Kottapatnam	India	0.1
	27 Nov 2013 14:00	Kakinada	India	0.1
	24 Nov 2013 07:00	Ban Ba Kan Pa	Thailand	0.1
	24 Nov 2013 19:00	Rongat	India	0.1
	27 Nov 2013 13:00	Therunattam	India	0.1
	24 Nov 2013 16:00	Palalankwe	India	0.1
	24 Nov 2013 16:00	Chetamale	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.